**Warmup**

**Activity #1**

**Probability Simulation.**

Simulation of flipping up to 10 coins, in which each coin is not necessarily “fair” (i.e. has 50/50% chance of landing Head/Tails).

- Use sliders to select the number of coins and the probability that each will land Heads (H).
- Use buttons to simulate a single flip, automate the whole flipping’ process, reset all coins to be fair, or restart to 0 trials. Beware that after several hundred trials, the app may start to drag.

**Activity #2**

`Probability Simulation.`

Alpine Zoom is a ski business. To make money over spring break, they need it to snow at least 4 out of the 10 days. The weather forecast says there is a chance it will snow each day during the break.

- In each trial, spin the spinner 10 times, and then record the number of 1’s that appeared in the row.
- The applet reports if the Alpine Zoom will make money or not in the last column.
- Click to get the spin button back to start the next simulation.

(1.) Based on your simulations above, estimate the probability that Alpine Zoom will make money.

(2.) Describe a chance experiment that you could use to simulate whether it will snow on the first day of break.

**Activity #3**

`Practice Probability Simulation.`

- Read the story below and complete the exercise.

Priya’s cat is pregnant with a litter of 5 kittens. Each kitten has a 30% chance of being chocolate brown. Priya wants to know the probability that at least two of the kittens will be chocolate brown.

To simulate this, Priya put 3 white cubes and 7 green cubes in a bag. For each trial, Priya pulled out and returned a cube 5 times. Priya conducted 12 trials.

Here is a table with the results.

(2.) Based on this simulation, estimate the probability that *exactly* two kittens will be chocolate brown.

(3.) Write and answer another question Priya could answer using this simulation.

(4.) How could Priya increase the accuracy of the simulation?

**Challenge #1**

Match each situation to a **simulation**.

**Challenge #2**

**Quiz Time**

https://www.ixl.com/math/grade-7/make-predictions-using-experimental-probability

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